CCT 2026 Europe Series 13 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Spirit Academy#97 in the world · win 2:0series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
megoshort#181 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientSpirit Academy pick
71%71%
Spirit Academy · 20 mapsnearly even +0%megoshort · 10 maps
MirageSpirit Academy ban
52%40%
Spirit Academy · 17 mapsedge Spirit Academy +12%megoshort · 11 maps
Cachemegoshort pick
42%58%
Spirit Academy · 15 mapsedge megoshort +16%megoshort · 8 maps
Nukemegoshort ban
59%50%
Spirit Academy · 23 mapsedge Spirit Academy +9%megoshort · 0 maps
Dust2megoshort ban
65%40%
Spirit Academy · 16 mapsedge Spirit Academy +25%megoshort · 6 maps
AnubisSpirit Academy ban
58%40%
Spirit Academy · 8 mapsedge Spirit Academy +18%megoshort · 6 maps
Defaultpossible decider
60%56%
Spirit Academy · 1 mapnearly even +4%megoshort · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSpirit Academy remove Anubis
2. Banmegoshort remove Nuke
3. PickSpirit Academy take Ancient
4. Pickmegoshort take Cache
5. Banmegoshort remove Dust2
6. BanSpirit Academy remove Mirage
DeciderDefault (60% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:7
Spirit Academy 46%megoshort 54%
The model gave 54% on megoshort — the map was taken by Spirit Academy.
Dust2prediction correct13:7
Spirit Academy 76%megoshort 24%
The model gave 76% on Spirit Academy — the map was taken by Spirit Academy.
Model check result
Model favoriteSpirit Academy · 55%
Series resultSpirit Academy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2