ESL Pro League Season 24 · BO3
result vs prediction
Spirit#1 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
93%7%
probability at match start · final 0:2
1win#33 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Spirit pick
67%59%
Spirit · 14 mapsedge Spirit +8%1win · 30 maps
Ancientpossible decider
79%58%
Spirit · 10 mapsedge Spirit +21%1win · 20 maps
Mirage1win pick
46%63%
Spirit · 9 mapsedge 1win +17%1win · 15 maps
Anubis1win ban
80%35%
Spirit · 6 mapsedge Spirit +45%1win · 13 maps
CacheSpirit ban
55%53%
Spirit · 7 mapsnearly even +2%1win · 11 maps
Nuke1win ban
60%50%
Spirit · 6 mapsedge Spirit +10%1win · 0 maps
InfernoSpirit ban
50%63%
Spirit · 0 mapsedge 1win +13%1win · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSpirit remove Inferno
2. Ban1win remove Nuke
3. PickSpirit take Dust2
4. Pick1win take Mirage
5. Ban1win remove Anubis
6. BanSpirit remove Cache
DeciderAncient (79% / 58%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct5:13
Spirit 48%1win 52%
The model gave 52% on 1win — the map was taken by 1win.
Anubisprediction missed9:13
Spirit 89%1win 11%
The model gave 89% on Spirit — the map was taken by 1win.
Model check result
Model favoriteSpirit · 93%
Series result1win 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2