BLAST Bounty 2026 Season 2 Finals · BO5
result vs prediction
Spirit#1 in the world · loss 1:3series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 1:3
MOUZ#3 in the world · win 3:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Spirit pick
72%62%
Spirit · 14 mapsedge Spirit +10%MOUZ · 9 maps
MirageSpirit pick
77%64%
Spirit · 9 mapsedge Spirit +13%MOUZ · 10 maps
NukeMOUZ pick
67%69%
Spirit · 2 mapsnearly even -2%MOUZ · 12 maps
Ancientpossible decider
78%50%
Spirit · 5 mapsedge Spirit +28%MOUZ · 8 maps
InfernoSpirit ban
50%58%
Spirit · 0 mapsedge MOUZ +8%MOUZ · 8 maps
OverpassMOUZ pick
29%67%
Spirit · 3 mapsedge MOUZ +38%MOUZ · 5 maps
AnubisMOUZ ban
70%50%
Spirit · 6 mapsedge Spirit +20%MOUZ · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSpirit remove Inferno
2. BanMOUZ remove Anubis
3. PickSpirit take Dust2
4. PickMOUZ take Nuke
5. PickSpirit take Mirage
6. PickMOUZ take Overpass
DeciderAncient (78% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed8:13
Spirit 65%MOUZ 35%
The model gave 65% on Spirit — the map was taken by MOUZ.
Mirageprediction missed4:13
Spirit 62%MOUZ 38%
The model gave 62% on Spirit — the map was taken by MOUZ.
Ancientprediction correct13:9
Spirit 80%MOUZ 20%
The model gave 80% on Spirit — the map was taken by Spirit.
Nukeprediction correct10:13
Spirit 45%MOUZ 55%
The model gave 55% on MOUZ — the map was taken by MOUZ.
Model check result
Model favoriteSpirit · 72%
Series resultMOUZ 1:3
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 4