BLAST Open Porto 2026 · BO5
result vs prediction
Spirit#1 in the world · win 3:1series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 3:1
MOUZ#3 in the world · loss 1:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Spirit pick
68%71%
Spirit · 15 mapsnearly even -3%MOUZ · 10 maps
MirageMOUZ pick
67%62%
Spirit · 11 mapsedge Spirit +5%MOUZ · 9 maps
AncientSpirit pick
83%38%
Spirit · 8 mapsedge Spirit +45%MOUZ · 9 maps
NukeMOUZ pick
60%71%
Spirit · 6 mapsedge MOUZ +11%MOUZ · 10 maps
AnubisMOUZ ban
75%50%
Spirit · 8 mapsedge Spirit +25%MOUZ · 0 maps
Cachepossible decider
55%60%
Spirit · 7 mapsedge MOUZ +5%MOUZ · 1 map
InfernoSpirit ban
50%67%
Spirit · 0 mapsedge MOUZ +17%MOUZ · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSpirit remove Inferno
2. BanMOUZ remove Anubis
3. PickSpirit take Ancient
4. PickMOUZ take Nuke
5. PickSpirit take Dust2
6. PickMOUZ take Mirage
DeciderCache (55% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:8
Spirit 49%MOUZ 51%
The model gave 51% on MOUZ — the map was taken by Spirit.
Mirageprediction missed11:13
Spirit 53%MOUZ 47%
The model gave 53% on Spirit — the map was taken by MOUZ.
Ancientprediction correct13:3
Spirit 90%MOUZ 10%
The model gave 90% on Spirit — the map was taken by Spirit.
Nukeprediction missed13:6
Spirit 35%MOUZ 65%
The model gave 65% on MOUZ — the map was taken by Spirit.
Model check result
Model favoriteSpirit · 66%
Series resultSpirit 3:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 4