ESL Pro League Season 24 · BO3
result vs prediction
Spirit#1 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 0:2
MOUZ#3 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Spirit pick
71%57%
Spirit · 13 mapsedge Spirit +14%MOUZ · 10 maps
MirageMOUZ pick
50%81%
Spirit · 8 mapsedge MOUZ +31%MOUZ · 12 maps
AncientMOUZ ban
79%38%
Spirit · 10 mapsedge Spirit +41%MOUZ · 9 maps
Nukepossible decider
60%62%
Spirit · 6 mapsnearly even -2%MOUZ · 9 maps
CacheSpirit ban
55%50%
Spirit · 7 mapsedge Spirit +5%MOUZ · 6 maps
AnubisMOUZ ban
80%50%
Spirit · 6 mapsedge Spirit +30%MOUZ · 0 maps
InfernoSpirit ban
50%78%
Spirit · 0 mapsedge MOUZ +28%MOUZ · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSpirit remove Inferno
2. BanMOUZ remove Anubis
3. PickSpirit take Dust2
4. PickMOUZ take Mirage
5. BanMOUZ remove Ancient
6. BanSpirit remove Cache
DeciderNuke (60% / 62%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed5:13
Spirit 67%MOUZ 33%
The model gave 67% on Spirit — the map was taken by MOUZ.
Mirageprediction correct11:13
Spirit 17%MOUZ 83%
The model gave 83% on MOUZ — the map was taken by MOUZ.
Model check result
Model favoriteSpirit · 70%
Series resultMOUZ 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2