ESL Pro League Season 24 · BO3
result vs prediction
Spirit#1 in the world · win 2:1series probability
90%10%
probability at match start · final 2:1
PARIVISION#20 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Spirit pick
69%44%
Spirit · 12 mapsedge Spirit +25%PARIVISION · 5 maps
Ancientpossible decider
85%60%
Spirit · 9 mapsedge Spirit +25%PARIVISION · 6 maps
CachePARIVISION ban
55%29%
Spirit · 7 mapsedge Spirit +26%PARIVISION · 3 maps
MiragePARIVISION pick
50%50%
Spirit · 8 mapsnearly even +0%PARIVISION · 2 maps
AnubisSpirit ban
78%60%
Spirit · 5 mapsedge Spirit +18%PARIVISION · 1 map
InfernoSpirit ban
50%40%
Spirit · 0 mapsedge Spirit +10%PARIVISION · 6 maps
NukePARIVISION ban
60%50%
Spirit · 6 mapsedge Spirit +10%PARIVISION · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSpirit remove Inferno
2. BanPARIVISION remove Nuke
3. PickSpirit take Dust2
4. PickPARIVISION take Mirage
5. BanPARIVISION remove Cache
6. BanSpirit remove Anubis
DeciderAncient (85% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed11:13
Spirit 76%PARIVISION 24%
The model gave 76% on Spirit — the map was taken by PARIVISION.
Dust2prediction correct13:6
Spirit 76%PARIVISION 24%
The model gave 76% on Spirit — the map was taken by Spirit.
Anubisprediction correct13:5
Spirit 70%PARIVISION 30%
The model gave 70% on Spirit — the map was taken by Spirit.
Model check result
Model favoriteSpirit · 90%
Series resultSpirit 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3