ESEA Advanced Season 58 North America · BO3
result vs prediction
SportsBetExpert#72 in the world · win 2:1series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:1
DETONATE#193 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoDETONATE pick
71%42%
SportsBetExpert · 10 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +29%DETONATE · 8 maps
MirageSportsBetExpert pick
82%50%
SportsBetExpert · 7 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +32%DETONATE · 6 maps
AnubisDETONATE ban
60%30%
SportsBetExpert · 6 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +30%DETONATE · 6 maps
Nukepossible decider
77%43%
SportsBetExpert · 9 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +34%DETONATE · 3 maps
CacheSportsBetExpert ban
44%43%
SportsBetExpert · 5 mapsnearly even +1%DETONATE · 3 maps
Dust2DETONATE ban
30%40%
SportsBetExpert · 6 mapsedge DETONATE +10%DETONATE · 1 map
AncientSportsBetExpert ban
50%50%
SportsBetExpert · 0 mapsnearly even +0%DETONATE · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSportsBetExpert remove Ancient
2. BanDETONATE remove Dust2
3. PickSportsBetExpert take Mirage
4. PickDETONATE take Inferno
5. BanDETONATE remove Anubis
6. BanSportsBetExpert remove Cache
DeciderNuke (77% / 43%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct12:16
SportsBetExpert 49%DETONATE 51%
The model gave 51% on DETONATE — the map was taken by DETONATE.
Mirageprediction correct13:8
SportsBetExpert 84%DETONATE 16%
The model gave 84% on SportsBetExpert — the map was taken by SportsBetExpert.
Nukeprediction correct13:3
SportsBetExpert 82%DETONATE 18%
The model gave 82% on SportsBetExpert — the map was taken by SportsBetExpert.
Model check result
Model favoriteSportsBetExpert · 78%
Series resultSportsBetExpert 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3