FRAG St. Clair 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
SportsBetExpert#69 in the world · win 2:0series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoSportsBetExpert pick
60%50%
SportsBetExpert · 6 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +10%For Fun · 0 maps
AnubisFor Fun ban
71%50%
SportsBetExpert · 3 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +21%For Fun · 0 maps
Dust2For Fun ban
67%50%
SportsBetExpert · 2 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +17%For Fun · 0 maps
AncientSportsBetExpert ban
60%50%
SportsBetExpert · 1 mapedge SportsBetExpert +10%For Fun · 0 maps
MirageFor Fun pick
40%50%
SportsBetExpert · 1 mapedge For Fun +10%For Fun · 0 maps
NukeSportsBetExpert ban
40%50%
SportsBetExpert · 1 mapedge For Fun +10%For Fun · 0 maps
Overpasspossible decider
40%50%
SportsBetExpert · 1 mapedge For Fun +10%For Fun · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSportsBetExpert remove Nuke
2. BanFor Fun remove Anubis
3. PickSportsBetExpert take Inferno
4. PickFor Fun take Mirage
5. BanFor Fun remove Dust2
6. BanSportsBetExpert remove Ancient
DeciderOverpass (40% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:7
SportsBetExpert 37%For Fun 63%
The model gave 63% on For Fun — the map was taken by SportsBetExpert.
Infernoprediction correct13:9
SportsBetExpert 63%For Fun 37%
The model gave 63% on SportsBetExpert — the map was taken by SportsBetExpert.
Model check result
Model favoriteSportsBetExpert · 67%
Series resultSportsBetExpert 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2