NSTLGA League Season 2 · BO1
result vs prediction
SportsBetExpert#72 in the world · win 13:5series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 13:5
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeFor Fun ban
77%50%
SportsBetExpert · 9 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +27%For Fun · 4 maps
Infernopossible decider
67%57%
SportsBetExpert · 8 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +10%For Fun · 3 maps
MirageSportsBetExpert ban
80%50%
SportsBetExpert · 6 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +30%For Fun · 2 maps
AnubisFor Fun ban
60%60%
SportsBetExpert · 6 mapsnearly even +0%For Fun · 1 map
Dust2SportsBetExpert ban
22%33%
SportsBetExpert · 5 mapsedge For Fun +11%For Fun · 2 maps
CacheFor Fun ban
38%50%
SportsBetExpert · 4 mapsedge For Fun +12%For Fun · 0 maps
AncientSportsBetExpert ban
50%67%
SportsBetExpert · 0 mapsedge For Fun +17%For Fun · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSportsBetExpert remove Ancient
2. BanFor Fun remove Anubis
3. BanSportsBetExpert remove Dust2
4. BanFor Fun remove Cache
5. BanSportsBetExpert remove Mirage
6. BanFor Fun remove Nuke
DeciderInferno (67% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:5
SportsBetExpert 80%For Fun 20%
The model gave 80% on SportsBetExpert — the map was taken by SportsBetExpert.
Model check result
Model favoriteSportsBetExpert · 84%
Series resultSportsBetExpert 13:5
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1