CCT 2026 Europe Series 1 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
STATE#142 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Lilmix#191 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientSTATE ban
50%60%
STATE · 2 mapsedge Lilmix +10%Lilmix · 1 map
Dust2STATE ban
50%33%
STATE · 0 mapsedge STATE +17%Lilmix · 2 maps
MirageLilmix ban
50%50%
STATE · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Lilmix · 2 maps
NukeLilmix ban
67%50%
STATE · 2 mapsedge STATE +17%Lilmix · 0 maps
InfernoLilmix pick
40%50%
STATE · 1 mapedge Lilmix +10%Lilmix · 0 maps
OverpassSTATE pick
60%50%
STATE · 1 mapedge STATE +10%Lilmix · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSTATE remove Dust2
2. BanLilmix remove Nuke
3. PickSTATE take Overpass
4. PickLilmix take Inferno
5. BanLilmix remove Mirage
6. BanSTATE remove Ancient
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct7:13
STATE 43%Lilmix 57%
The model gave 57% on Lilmix — the map was taken by Lilmix.
Mirageprediction missed16:12
STATE 47%Lilmix 53%
The model gave 53% on Lilmix — the map was taken by STATE.
Overpassprediction missed10:13
STATE 60%Lilmix 40%
The model gave 60% on STATE — the map was taken by Lilmix.
Model check result
Model favoriteSTATE · 57%
Series resultLilmix 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3