POWER Ligaen Season 32 · BO3
result vs prediction
STATE#137 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 1:2
MASONIC#187 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientpossible decider
56%36%
STATE · 5 mapsedge STATE +20%MASONIC · 7 maps
NukeSTATE pick
75%70%
STATE · 4 mapsedge STATE +5%MASONIC · 6 maps
InfernoSTATE ban
57%44%
STATE · 3 mapsedge STATE +13%MASONIC · 5 maps
Dust2STATE ban
50%55%
STATE · 0 mapsedge MASONIC +5%MASONIC · 7 maps
OverpassMASONIC pick
43%57%
STATE · 3 mapsedge MASONIC +14%MASONIC · 3 maps
AnubisMASONIC ban
50%50%
STATE · 2 mapsnearly even +0%MASONIC · 2 maps
MirageMASONIC ban
63%50%
STATE · 4 mapsedge STATE +13%MASONIC · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSTATE remove Dust2
2. BanMASONIC remove Mirage
3. PickSTATE take Nuke
4. PickMASONIC take Overpass
5. BanMASONIC remove Anubis
6. BanSTATE remove Inferno
DeciderAncient (56% / 36%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct13:11
STATE 53%MASONIC 47%
The model gave 53% on STATE — the map was taken by STATE.
Ancientprediction missed10:13
STATE 71%MASONIC 29%
The model gave 71% on STATE — the map was taken by MASONIC.
Overpassprediction correct11:13
STATE 36%MASONIC 64%
The model gave 64% on MASONIC — the map was taken by MASONIC.
Model check result
Model favoriteSTATE · 69%
Series resultMASONIC 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3