Hotspawn Showdown 2026 Finals · BO3
result vs prediction
STATE#141 in the world · win 2:0series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientSTATE ban
46%57%
STATE · 9 mapsedge overTIME +11%overTIME · 3 maps
MirageoverTIME ban
36%43%
STATE · 7 mapsedge overTIME +7%overTIME · 3 maps
NukeSTATE pick
54%40%
STATE · 9 mapsedge STATE +14%overTIME · 1 map
CacheoverTIME ban
54%50%
STATE · 9 mapsnearly even +4%overTIME · 0 maps
InfernoSTATE ban
33%50%
STATE · 5 mapsedge overTIME +17%overTIME · 0 maps
Anubispossible decider
50%50%
STATE · 2 mapsnearly even +0%overTIME · 2 maps
DefaultoverTIME pick
57%50%
STATE · 3 mapsedge STATE +7%overTIME · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSTATE remove Inferno
2. BanoverTIME remove Cache
3. PickSTATE take Nuke
4. PickoverTIME take Default
5. BanoverTIME remove Mirage
6. BanSTATE remove Ancient
DeciderAnubis (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed13:3
STATE 47%overTIME 53%
The model gave 53% on overTIME — the map was taken by STATE.
Nukeprediction correct13:1
STATE 66%overTIME 34%
The model gave 66% on STATE — the map was taken by STATE.
Model check result
Model favoriteSTATE · 64%
Series resultSTATE 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2