HopLan 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Strael Bora#239 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientJulie&Cie ban
43%30%
Strael Bora · 3 mapsedge Strael Bora +13%Julie&Cie · 6 maps
Dust2Strael Bora pick
50%36%
Strael Bora · 0 mapsedge Strael Bora +14%Julie&Cie · 7 maps
Infernopossible decider
40%38%
Strael Bora · 1 mapnearly even +2%Julie&Cie · 4 maps
MirageStrael Bora ban
50%25%
Strael Bora · 0 mapsedge Strael Bora +25%Julie&Cie · 4 maps
AnubisStrael Bora ban
50%43%
Strael Bora · 0 mapsedge Strael Bora +7%Julie&Cie · 3 maps
DefaultJulie&Cie pick
50%57%
Strael Bora · 0 mapsedge Julie&Cie +7%Julie&Cie · 3 maps
NukeJulie&Cie ban
67%50%
Strael Bora · 2 mapsedge Strael Bora +17%Julie&Cie · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanStrael Bora remove Mirage
2. BanJulie&Cie remove Nuke
3. PickStrael Bora take Dust2
4. PickJulie&Cie take Default
5. BanJulie&Cie remove Ancient
6. BanStrael Bora remove Anubis
DeciderInferno (40% / 38%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed20:22
Strael Bora 54%Julie&Cie 46%
The model gave 54% on Strael Bora — the map was taken by Julie&Cie.
Nukeprediction missed10:13
Strael Bora 69%Julie&Cie 31%
The model gave 69% on Strael Bora — the map was taken by Julie&Cie.
Model check result
Model favoriteStrael Bora · 67%
Series resultJulie&Cie 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 2