ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Strael Bora#239 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The Last Resort#159 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeStrael Bora pick
50%50%
Strael Bora · 4 mapsnearly even +0%The Last Resort · 12 maps
Ancientpossible decider
50%50%
Strael Bora · 4 mapsnearly even +0%The Last Resort · 10 maps
InfernoThe Last Resort ban
57%56%
Strael Bora · 3 mapsnearly even +1%The Last Resort · 5 maps
Dust2Strael Bora ban
50%50%
Strael Bora · 0 mapsnearly even +0%The Last Resort · 6 maps
OverpassThe Last Resort pick
40%67%
Strael Bora · 1 mapedge The Last Resort +27%The Last Resort · 5 maps
AnubisThe Last Resort ban
33%43%
Strael Bora · 2 mapsedge The Last Resort +10%The Last Resort · 3 maps
CacheStrael Bora ban
50%56%
Strael Bora · 0 mapsedge The Last Resort +6%The Last Resort · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanStrael Bora remove Dust2
2. BanThe Last Resort remove Inferno
3. PickStrael Bora take Nuke
4. PickThe Last Resort take Overpass
5. BanThe Last Resort remove Anubis
6. BanStrael Bora remove Cache
DeciderAncient (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct8:13
Strael Bora 43%The Last Resort 57%
The model gave 57% on The Last Resort — the map was taken by The Last Resort.
Nukeprediction correct17:19
Strael Bora 47%The Last Resort 53%
The model gave 53% on The Last Resort — the map was taken by The Last Resort.
Model check result
Model favoriteThe Last Resort · 61%
Series resultThe Last Resort 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2