POWER Ligaen Season 32 · BO3
result vs prediction
struggletonywin 2:0series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 2:0
XI#239 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Nukestruggletony ban
40%43%
struggletony · 1 mapnearly even -3%XI · 3 maps
Ancientstruggletony ban
50%57%
struggletony · 0 mapsedge XI +7%XI · 3 maps
DefaultXI pick
50%67%
struggletony · 0 mapsedge XI +17%XI · 2 maps
Dust2struggletony pick
50%50%
struggletony · 0 mapsnearly even +0%XI · 2 maps
InfernoXI ban
50%40%
struggletony · 0 mapsedge struggletony +10%XI · 1 map
OverpassXI ban
50%40%
struggletony · 0 mapsedge struggletony +10%XI · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banstruggletony remove Ancient
2. BanXI remove Inferno
3. Pickstruggletony take Dust2
4. PickXI take Default
5. BanXI remove Overpass
6. Banstruggletony remove Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct13:6
struggletony 50%XI 50%
The model gave 50% on struggletony — the map was taken by struggletony.
Ancientprediction missed13:9
struggletony 40%XI 60%
The model gave 60% on XI — the map was taken by struggletony.
Model check result
Model favoriteXI · 59%
Series resultstruggletony 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2