Thunderpick World Championship 2026 Europe Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
TDK#86 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2DragonClaw ban
71%50%
TDK · 10 mapsedge TDK +21%DragonClaw · 0 maps
OverpassTDK pick
75%60%
TDK · 8 mapsedge TDK +15%DragonClaw · 1 map
AncientDragonClaw ban
55%50%
TDK · 7 mapsedge TDK +5%DragonClaw · 0 maps
MirageTDK ban
50%50%
TDK · 6 mapsnearly even +0%DragonClaw · 0 maps
AnubisDragonClaw pick
50%60%
TDK · 2 mapsedge DragonClaw +10%DragonClaw · 1 map
InfernoTDK ban
29%50%
TDK · 3 mapsedge DragonClaw +21%DragonClaw · 0 maps
Defaultpossible decider
67%50%
TDK · 2 mapsedge TDK +17%DragonClaw · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanTDK remove Inferno
2. BanDragonClaw remove Ancient
3. PickTDK take Overpass
4. PickDragonClaw take Anubis
5. BanDragonClaw remove Dust2
6. BanTDK remove Mirage
DeciderDefault (67% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct8:13
TDK 47%DragonClaw 53%
The model gave 53% on DragonClaw — the map was taken by DragonClaw.
Dust2prediction correct16:14
TDK 74%DragonClaw 26%
The model gave 74% on TDK — the map was taken by TDK.
Anubisprediction correct11:13
TDK 40%DragonClaw 60%
The model gave 60% on DragonClaw — the map was taken by DragonClaw.
Model check result
Model favoriteTDK · 62%
Series resultDragonClaw 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map3 of 3