NODWIN Clutch Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
TDK#86 in the world · win 2:1series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:1
MOUZ NXT#146 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2MOUZ NXT pick
67%60%
TDK · 5 mapsedge TDK +7%MOUZ NXT · 6 maps
MirageMOUZ NXT ban
50%27%
TDK · 2 mapsedge TDK +23%MOUZ NXT · 7 maps
AncientTDK ban
57%57%
TDK · 3 mapsnearly even +0%MOUZ NXT · 3 maps
OverpassTDK pick
57%33%
TDK · 3 mapsedge TDK +24%MOUZ NXT · 2 maps
NukeTDK ban
50%43%
TDK · 0 mapsedge TDK +7%MOUZ NXT · 3 maps
AnubisMOUZ NXT ban
50%50%
TDK · 2 mapsnearly even +0%MOUZ NXT · 0 maps
Defaultpossible decider
60%60%
TDK · 1 mapnearly even +0%MOUZ NXT · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanTDK remove Nuke
2. BanMOUZ NXT remove Anubis
3. PickTDK take Overpass
4. PickMOUZ NXT take Dust2
5. BanMOUZ NXT remove Mirage
6. BanTDK remove Ancient
DeciderDefault (60% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed8:13
TDK 70%MOUZ NXT 30%
The model gave 70% on TDK — the map was taken by MOUZ NXT.
Overpassprediction correct13:6
TDK 75%MOUZ NXT 25%
The model gave 75% on TDK — the map was taken by TDK.
Dust2prediction correct13:1
TDK 57%MOUZ NXT 43%
The model gave 57% on TDK — the map was taken by TDK.
Model check result
Model favoriteTDK · 60%
Series resultTDK 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3