NODWIN Clutch Series 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
TDK#86 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Nemesis#43 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientNemesis ban
64%55%
TDK · 10 mapsedge TDK +9%Nemesis · 7 maps
Dust2TDK pick
75%63%
TDK · 12 mapsedge TDK +12%Nemesis · 4 maps
MirageTDK ban
50%60%
TDK · 8 mapsedge Nemesis +10%Nemesis · 6 maps
OverpassNemesis ban
80%40%
TDK · 11 mapsedge TDK +40%Nemesis · 1 map
InfernoNemesis pick
38%70%
TDK · 4 mapsedge Nemesis +32%Nemesis · 6 maps
NukeTDK ban
40%75%
TDK · 1 mapedge Nemesis +35%Nemesis · 8 maps
Defaultpossible decider
63%60%
TDK · 4 mapsnearly even +3%Nemesis · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanTDK remove Nuke
2. BanNemesis remove Overpass
3. PickTDK take Dust2
4. PickNemesis take Inferno
5. BanNemesis remove Ancient
6. BanTDK remove Mirage
DeciderDefault (63% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Overpassprediction missed5:13
TDK 87%Nemesis 13%
The model gave 87% on TDK — the map was taken by Nemesis.
Infernoprediction missed13:6
TDK 19%Nemesis 81%
The model gave 81% on Nemesis — the map was taken by TDK.
Mirageprediction correct10:13
TDK 40%Nemesis 60%
The model gave 60% on Nemesis — the map was taken by Nemesis.
Model check result
Model favoriteTDK · 53%
Series resultNemesis 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3