Thunderpick World Championship 2026 Europe Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
TDK#86 in the world · win 2:0series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TNC#147 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageTDK ban
50%65%
TDK · 6 mapsedge TNC +15%TNC · 13 maps
AncientTNC pick
50%56%
TDK · 6 mapsedge TNC +6%TNC · 12 maps
Dust2TDK pick
67%38%
TDK · 8 mapsedge TDK +29%TNC · 9 maps
NukeTDK ban
40%61%
TDK · 1 mapedge TNC +21%TNC · 14 maps
OverpassTNC ban
73%38%
TDK · 7 mapsedge TDK +35%TNC · 4 maps
Anubispossible decider
50%67%
TDK · 2 mapsedge TNC +17%TNC · 8 maps
DefaultTNC ban
60%29%
TDK · 1 mapedge TDK +31%TNC · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanTDK remove Nuke
2. BanTNC remove Overpass
3. PickTDK take Dust2
4. PickTNC take Ancient
5. BanTNC remove Default
6. BanTDK remove Mirage
DeciderAnubis (50% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:6
TDK 78%TNC 22%
The model gave 78% on TDK — the map was taken by TDK.
Ancientprediction missed13:7
TDK 41%TNC 59%
The model gave 59% on TNC — the map was taken by TDK.
Model check result
Model favoriteTDK · 73%
Series resultTDK 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2