FISSURE Playground 3 Asia Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
The Huns#152 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Chinggis Warriors#77 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
47%44%
The Huns · 15 mapsnearly even +3%Chinggis Warriors · 5 maps
NukeThe Huns pick
60%42%
The Huns · 11 mapsedge The Huns +18%Chinggis Warriors · 8 maps
InfernoChinggis Warriors pick
33%56%
The Huns · 8 mapsedge Chinggis Warriors +23%Chinggis Warriors · 5 maps
AncientChinggis Warriors ban
58%38%
The Huns · 8 mapsedge The Huns +20%Chinggis Warriors · 4 maps
MirageThe Huns ban
30%50%
The Huns · 6 mapsedge Chinggis Warriors +20%Chinggis Warriors · 2 maps
CacheChinggis Warriors ban
56%40%
The Huns · 5 mapsedge The Huns +16%Chinggis Warriors · 1 map
AnubisThe Huns ban
50%33%
The Huns · 0 mapsedge The Huns +17%Chinggis Warriors · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanThe Huns remove Anubis
2. BanChinggis Warriors remove Ancient
3. PickThe Huns take Nuke
4. PickChinggis Warriors take Inferno
5. BanChinggis Warriors remove Cache
6. BanThe Huns remove Mirage
DeciderDust2 (47% / 44%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct7:13
The Huns 26%Chinggis Warriors 74%
The model gave 74% on Chinggis Warriors — the map was taken by Chinggis Warriors.
Dust2prediction correct13:9
The Huns 56%Chinggis Warriors 44%
The model gave 56% on The Huns — the map was taken by The Huns.
Nukeprediction missed7:13
The Huns 68%Chinggis Warriors 32%
The model gave 68% on The Huns — the map was taken by Chinggis Warriors.
Model check result
Model favoriteThe Huns · 76%
Series resultChinggis Warriors 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3