ESL Challenger League Season 51 Asia-Pacific Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
The Huns#152 in the world · win 1:0series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Just Swing#173 in the world · loss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeJust Swing pick
40%57%
The Huns · 1 mapedge Just Swing +17%Just Swing · 3 maps
DefaultThe Huns pick
67%40%
The Huns · 2 mapsedge The Huns +27%Just Swing · 1 map
Dust2Just Swing ban
40%40%
The Huns · 1 mapnearly even +0%Just Swing · 1 map
InfernoJust Swing ban
50%50%
The Huns · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Just Swing · 2 maps
AncientThe Huns ban
50%60%
The Huns · 0 mapsedge Just Swing +10%Just Swing · 1 map
AnubisThe Huns ban
50%60%
The Huns · 0 mapsedge Just Swing +10%Just Swing · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanThe Huns remove Anubis
2. BanJust Swing remove Dust2
3. PickThe Huns take Default
4. PickJust Swing take Nuke
5. BanJust Swing remove Inferno
6. BanThe Huns remove Ancient
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct1:0
The Huns 75%Just Swing 25%
The model gave 75% on The Huns — the map was taken by The Huns.
Model check result
Model favoriteThe Huns · 65%
Series resultThe Huns 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1