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Intel EPIC48 · BO3
result vs prediction
The Last Resort#159 in the world · win 2:1
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:1
CTRL#206 in the world · loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Nukepossible decider
44%50%
The Last Resort · 14 mapsedge CTRL +6%CTRL · 0 maps
AncientThe Last Resort pick
60%50%
The Last Resort · 11 mapsedge The Last Resort +10%CTRL · 0 maps
OverpassCTRL ban
64%50%
The Last Resort · 10 mapsedge The Last Resort +14%CTRL · 0 maps
MirageThe Last Resort ban
27%50%
The Last Resort · 7 mapsedge CTRL +23%CTRL · 0 maps
InfernoThe Last Resort ban
56%50%
The Last Resort · 5 mapsedge The Last Resort +6%CTRL · 0 maps
AnubisCTRL ban
63%50%
The Last Resort · 4 mapsedge The Last Resort +13%CTRL · 0 maps
CacheCTRL pick
43%50%
The Last Resort · 3 mapsedge CTRL +7%CTRL · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanThe Last Resort remove Mirage
2. BanCTRL remove Overpass
3. PickThe Last Resort take Ancient
4. PickCTRL take Cache
5. BanCTRL remove Anubis
6. BanThe Last Resort remove Inferno
DeciderNuke (44% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct10:13
The Last Resort 42%CTRL 58%
The model gave 58% on CTRL — the map was taken by CTRL.
Dust2prediction correct13:6
The Last Resort 53%CTRL 47%
The model gave 53% on The Last Resort — the map was taken by The Last Resort.
Infernoprediction correct13:10
The Last Resort 56%CTRL 44%
The model gave 56% on The Last Resort — the map was taken by The Last Resort.
Model check result
Model favoriteThe Last Resort · 67%
Series resultThe Last Resort 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3