Hotspawn Showdown 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
The Last Resort#159 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 0:2
G2 Ares#103 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoG2 Ares pick
50%58%
The Last Resort · 8 mapsedge G2 Ares +8%G2 Ares · 27 maps
Dust2The Last Resort ban
47%38%
The Last Resort · 11 mapsedge The Last Resort +9%G2 Ares · 22 maps
Ancientpossible decider
36%52%
The Last Resort · 10 mapsedge G2 Ares +16%G2 Ares · 17 maps
MirageThe Last Resort ban
40%41%
The Last Resort · 1 mapnearly even -1%G2 Ares · 25 maps
CacheThe Last Resort pick
62%33%
The Last Resort · 9 mapsedge The Last Resort +29%G2 Ares · 11 maps
NukeG2 Ares ban
61%50%
The Last Resort · 14 mapsedge The Last Resort +11%G2 Ares · 0 maps
AnubisG2 Ares ban
50%45%
The Last Resort · 6 mapsedge The Last Resort +5%G2 Ares · 7 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanThe Last Resort remove Mirage
2. BanG2 Ares remove Nuke
3. PickThe Last Resort take Cache
4. PickG2 Ares take Inferno
5. BanG2 Ares remove Anubis
6. BanThe Last Resort remove Dust2
DeciderAncient (36% / 52%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct11:13
The Last Resort 39%G2 Ares 61%
The model gave 61% on G2 Ares — the map was taken by G2 Ares.
Cacheprediction missed8:13
The Last Resort 78%G2 Ares 22%
The model gave 78% on The Last Resort — the map was taken by G2 Ares.
Model check result
Model favoriteThe Last Resort · 57%
Series resultG2 Ares 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2