?
arrow_backBack to match
Hotspawn Showdown 2026 Finals · BO3
result vs prediction
The Last Resort#140 in the world · win 2:1
series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 2:1
G2 Ares#105 in the world · loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoG2 Ares pick
36%62%
The Last Resort · 10 mapsedge G2 Ares +26%G2 Ares · 33 maps
Ancientpossible decider
44%56%
The Last Resort · 14 mapsedge G2 Ares +12%G2 Ares · 23 maps
Dust2G2 Ares ban
36%30%
The Last Resort · 7 mapsedge The Last Resort +6%G2 Ares · 23 maps
CacheThe Last Resort pick
46%48%
The Last Resort · 9 mapsnearly even -2%G2 Ares · 19 maps
MirageThe Last Resort ban
33%37%
The Last Resort · 2 mapsnearly even -4%G2 Ares · 26 maps
AnubisThe Last Resort ban
50%36%
The Last Resort · 6 mapsedge The Last Resort +14%G2 Ares · 10 maps
NukeG2 Ares ban
54%50%
The Last Resort · 9 mapsnearly even +4%G2 Ares · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanThe Last Resort remove Mirage
2. BanG2 Ares remove Nuke
3. PickThe Last Resort take Cache
4. PickG2 Ares take Inferno
5. BanG2 Ares remove Dust2
6. BanThe Last Resort remove Anubis
DeciderAncient (44% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed13:4
The Last Resort 23%G2 Ares 77%
The model gave 77% on G2 Ares — the map was taken by The Last Resort.
Anubisprediction missed6:13
The Last Resort 67%G2 Ares 33%
The model gave 67% on The Last Resort — the map was taken by G2 Ares.
Ancientprediction missed13:6
The Last Resort 39%G2 Ares 61%
The model gave 61% on G2 Ares — the map was taken by The Last Resort.
Model check result
Model favoriteG2 Ares · 67%
Series resultThe Last Resort 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 3