ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
The Last Resort#159 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Privateer#226 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeThe Last Resort pick
67%30%
The Last Resort · 14 mapsedge The Last Resort +37%Privateer · 16 maps
AncientThe Last Resort ban
31%36%
The Last Resort · 12 mapsedge Privateer +5%Privateer · 10 maps
Dust2Privateer ban
50%29%
The Last Resort · 10 mapsedge The Last Resort +21%Privateer · 10 maps
InfernoPrivateer pick
47%67%
The Last Resort · 11 mapsedge Privateer +20%Privateer · 2 maps
CachePrivateer ban
57%40%
The Last Resort · 10 mapsedge The Last Resort +17%Privateer · 1 map
Defaultpossible decider
57%22%
The Last Resort · 3 mapsedge The Last Resort +35%Privateer · 5 maps
MirageThe Last Resort ban
33%30%
The Last Resort · 2 mapsnearly even +3%Privateer · 6 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanThe Last Resort remove Mirage
2. BanPrivateer remove Dust2
3. PickThe Last Resort take Nuke
4. PickPrivateer take Inferno
5. BanPrivateer remove Cache
6. BanThe Last Resort remove Ancient
DeciderDefault (57% / 22%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:8
The Last Resort 42%Privateer 58%
The model gave 58% on Privateer — the map was taken by The Last Resort.
Cacheprediction missed8:13
The Last Resort 69%Privateer 31%
The model gave 69% on The Last Resort — the map was taken by Privateer.
Nukeprediction missed8:13
The Last Resort 82%Privateer 18%
The model gave 82% on The Last Resort — the map was taken by Privateer.
Model check result
Model favoriteThe Last Resort · 78%
Series resultPrivateer 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 3