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ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
The Last Resort#159 in the world · loss 1:2
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 1:2
QUAZAR#94 in the world · win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeThe Last Resort ban
38%63%
The Last Resort · 12 mapsedge QUAZAR +25%QUAZAR · 4 maps
AncientQUAZAR ban
60%50%
The Last Resort · 11 mapsedge The Last Resort +10%QUAZAR · 0 maps
MirageQUAZAR pick
27%71%
The Last Resort · 7 mapsedge QUAZAR +44%QUAZAR · 3 maps
OverpassThe Last Resort pick
64%50%
The Last Resort · 10 mapsedge The Last Resort +14%QUAZAR · 0 maps
Anubispossible decider
71%63%
The Last Resort · 3 mapsedge The Last Resort +8%QUAZAR · 4 maps
InfernoQUAZAR ban
56%60%
The Last Resort · 5 mapsnearly even -4%QUAZAR · 1 map
Dust2The Last Resort ban
33%57%
The Last Resort · 2 mapsedge QUAZAR +24%QUAZAR · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanThe Last Resort remove Dust2
2. BanQUAZAR remove Ancient
3. PickThe Last Resort take Overpass
4. PickQUAZAR take Mirage
5. BanQUAZAR remove Inferno
6. BanThe Last Resort remove Nuke
DeciderAnubis (71% / 63%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed10:13
The Last Resort 57%QUAZAR 43%
The model gave 57% on The Last Resort — the map was taken by QUAZAR.
Nukeprediction missed13:5
The Last Resort 29%QUAZAR 71%
The model gave 71% on QUAZAR — the map was taken by The Last Resort.
Cacheprediction missed4:13
The Last Resort 50%QUAZAR 50%
The model gave 50% on The Last Resort — the map was taken by QUAZAR.
Model check result
Model favoriteThe Last Resort · 57%
Series resultQUAZAR 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 3