EPIC49 · BO3
result vs prediction
The Last Resort#140 in the world · win 2:0series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Ryvex#206 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientRyvex pick
45%60%
The Last Resort · 16 mapsedge Ryvex +15%Ryvex · 11 maps
NukeThe Last Resort pick
60%33%
The Last Resort · 11 mapsedge The Last Resort +27%Ryvex · 8 maps
CacheRyvex ban
40%33%
The Last Resort · 11 mapsedge The Last Resort +7%Ryvex · 5 maps
Dust2The Last Resort ban
36%38%
The Last Resort · 7 mapsnearly even -2%Ryvex · 9 maps
Infernopossible decider
41%67%
The Last Resort · 13 mapsedge Ryvex +26%Ryvex · 2 maps
MirageThe Last Resort ban
33%45%
The Last Resort · 2 mapsedge Ryvex +12%Ryvex · 7 maps
AnubisRyvex ban
50%50%
The Last Resort · 8 mapsnearly even +0%Ryvex · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanThe Last Resort remove Mirage
2. BanRyvex remove Anubis
3. PickThe Last Resort take Nuke
4. PickRyvex take Ancient
5. BanRyvex remove Cache
6. BanThe Last Resort remove Dust2
DeciderInferno (41% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:6
The Last Resort 45%Ryvex 55%
The model gave 55% on Ryvex — the map was taken by The Last Resort.
Infernoprediction missed13:11
The Last Resort 28%Ryvex 72%
The model gave 72% on Ryvex — the map was taken by The Last Resort.
Model check result
Model favoriteThe Last Resort · 67%
Series resultThe Last Resort 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2