Hotspawn Showdown 2026 Finals · BO3
result vs prediction
The Last Resort#140 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 0:2
STATE#141 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientSTATE ban
47%46%
The Last Resort · 15 mapsnearly even +1%STATE · 9 maps
NukeThe Last Resort pick
57%50%
The Last Resort · 10 mapsedge The Last Resort +7%STATE · 10 maps
Infernopossible decider
38%45%
The Last Resort · 12 mapsedge STATE +7%STATE · 7 maps
CacheSTATE pick
46%50%
The Last Resort · 9 mapsnearly even -4%STATE · 8 maps
AnubisThe Last Resort ban
50%56%
The Last Resort · 8 mapsedge STATE +6%STATE · 5 maps
MirageThe Last Resort ban
33%36%
The Last Resort · 2 mapsnearly even -3%STATE · 7 maps
Dust2STATE ban
36%50%
The Last Resort · 7 mapsedge STATE +14%STATE · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanThe Last Resort remove Mirage
2. BanSTATE remove Dust2
3. PickThe Last Resort take Nuke
4. PickSTATE take Cache
5. BanSTATE remove Ancient
6. BanThe Last Resort remove Anubis
DeciderInferno (38% / 45%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct14:16
The Last Resort 43%STATE 57%
The model gave 57% on STATE — the map was taken by STATE.
Ancientprediction missed2:13
The Last Resort 54%STATE 46%
The model gave 54% on The Last Resort — the map was taken by STATE.
Model check result
Model favoriteThe Last Resort · 55%
Series resultSTATE 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2