IEM Cologne Major 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
The MongolZ#16 in the world · win 2:1series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Monte#23 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragepossible decider
36%50%
The MongolZ · 7 mapsedge Monte +14%Monte · 6 maps
Dust2Monte pick
50%50%
The MongolZ · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Monte · 8 maps
AncientThe MongolZ ban
33%56%
The MongolZ · 5 mapsedge Monte +23%Monte · 5 maps
NukeMonte ban
67%40%
The MongolZ · 2 mapsedge The MongolZ +27%Monte · 6 maps
InfernoThe MongolZ pick
71%50%
The MongolZ · 3 mapsedge The MongolZ +21%Monte · 2 maps
OverpassMonte ban
50%40%
The MongolZ · 2 mapsedge The MongolZ +10%Monte · 1 map
AnubisThe MongolZ ban
50%50%
The MongolZ · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Monte · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanThe MongolZ remove Anubis
2. BanMonte remove Overpass
3. PickThe MongolZ take Inferno
4. PickMonte take Dust2
5. BanMonte remove Nuke
6. BanThe MongolZ remove Ancient
DeciderMirage (36% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed9:13
The MongolZ 73%Monte 27%
The model gave 73% on The MongolZ — the map was taken by Monte.
Infernoprediction correct13:7
The MongolZ 74%Monte 26%
The model gave 74% on The MongolZ — the map was taken by The MongolZ.
Dust2prediction correct13:11
The MongolZ 50%Monte 50%
The model gave 50% on The MongolZ — the map was taken by The MongolZ.
Model check result
Model favoriteThe MongolZ · 68%
Series resultThe MongolZ 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3