ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 2 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The KnockoutX#287 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageThe KnockoutX ban
56%40%
THE UNIT · 5 mapsedge THE UNIT +16%The KnockoutX · 1 map
Dust2THE UNIT ban
38%40%
THE UNIT · 4 mapsnearly even -2%The KnockoutX · 1 map
AncientTHE UNIT pick
50%60%
THE UNIT · 2 mapsedge The KnockoutX +10%The KnockoutX · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanTHE UNIT remove Dust2
2. BanThe KnockoutX remove Mirage
3. PickTHE UNIT take Ancient
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed11:13
THE UNIT 68%The KnockoutX 32%
The model gave 68% on THE UNIT — the map was taken by The KnockoutX.
Ancientprediction correct13:16
THE UNIT 37%The KnockoutX 63%
The model gave 63% on The KnockoutX — the map was taken by The KnockoutX.
Model check result
Model favoriteTHE UNIT · 70%
Series resultThe KnockoutX 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2