ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 3 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The KnockoutX#287 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageTHE UNIT pick
50%50%
THE UNIT · 6 mapsnearly even +0%The KnockoutX · 2 maps
AncientTHE UNIT ban
43%71%
THE UNIT · 3 mapsedge The KnockoutX +28%The KnockoutX · 3 maps
Dust2The KnockoutX pick
38%50%
THE UNIT · 4 mapsedge The KnockoutX +12%The KnockoutX · 2 maps
DefaultThe KnockoutX ban
60%40%
THE UNIT · 1 mapedge THE UNIT +20%The KnockoutX · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanTHE UNIT remove Ancient
2. BanThe KnockoutX remove Default
3. PickTHE UNIT take Mirage
4. PickThe KnockoutX take Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed9:13
THE UNIT 53%The KnockoutX 47%
The model gave 53% on THE UNIT — the map was taken by The KnockoutX.
Ancientprediction correct10:13
THE UNIT 21%The KnockoutX 79%
The model gave 79% on The KnockoutX — the map was taken by The KnockoutX.
Model check result
Model favoriteThe KnockoutX · 55%
Series resultThe KnockoutX 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2