ESL Challenger League Season 51 Oceania Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
THUNDER dOWNUNDER#128 in the world · win 2:1series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Abyssal#165 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientAbyssal ban
60%50%
THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 1 mapedge THUNDER dOWNUNDER +10%Abyssal · 0 maps
AnubisTHUNDER dOWNUNDER pick
60%50%
THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 1 mapedge THUNDER dOWNUNDER +10%Abyssal · 0 maps
MirageTHUNDER dOWNUNDER ban
50%60%
THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 0 mapsedge Abyssal +10%Abyssal · 1 map
NukeAbyssal pick
50%60%
THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 0 mapsedge Abyssal +10%Abyssal · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanTHUNDER dOWNUNDER remove Mirage
2. BanAbyssal remove Ancient
3. PickTHUNDER dOWNUNDER take Anubis
4. PickAbyssal take Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Overpassprediction correct11:13
THUNDER dOWNUNDER 47%Abyssal 53%
The model gave 53% on Abyssal — the map was taken by Abyssal.
Anubisprediction correct13:7
THUNDER dOWNUNDER 63%Abyssal 37%
The model gave 63% on THUNDER dOWNUNDER — the map was taken by THUNDER dOWNUNDER.
Infernoprediction correct13:10
THUNDER dOWNUNDER 50%Abyssal 50%
The model gave 50% on THUNDER dOWNUNDER — the map was taken by THUNDER dOWNUNDER.
Model check result
Model favoriteTHUNDER dOWNUNDER · 67%
Series resultTHUNDER dOWNUNDER 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3