IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 1 · BO1
result vs prediction
THUNDER dOWNUNDER#128 in the world · loss 7:13series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 7:13
BIG#35 in the world · win 13:7The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisBIG ban
75%40%
THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 8 mapsedge THUNDER dOWNUNDER +35%BIG · 1 map
Dust2BIG ban
45%50%
THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 7 mapsedge BIG +5%BIG · 0 maps
NukeBIG ban
56%50%
THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 5 mapsedge THUNDER dOWNUNDER +6%BIG · 2 maps
Infernopossible decider
67%50%
THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 5 mapsedge THUNDER dOWNUNDER +17%BIG · 0 maps
AncientTHUNDER dOWNUNDER ban
50%50%
THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 2 mapsnearly even +0%BIG · 2 maps
MirageTHUNDER dOWNUNDER ban
50%57%
THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 0 mapsedge BIG +7%BIG · 3 maps
OverpassTHUNDER dOWNUNDER ban
40%40%
THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 1 mapnearly even +0%BIG · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanTHUNDER dOWNUNDER remove Mirage
2. BanBIG remove Anubis
3. BanTHUNDER dOWNUNDER remove Ancient
4. BanBIG remove Dust2
5. BanTHUNDER dOWNUNDER remove Overpass
6. BanBIG remove Nuke
DeciderInferno (67% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed7:13
THUNDER dOWNUNDER 67%BIG 33%
The model gave 67% on THUNDER dOWNUNDER — the map was taken by BIG.
Model check result
Model favoriteBIG · 63%
Series resultBIG 7:13
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 1