ESL Challenger League Season 52 Oceania Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
THUNDER dOWNUNDER#128 in the world · win 2:0series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Arcade#198 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoTHUNDER dOWNUNDER pick
63%73%
THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 4 mapsedge Arcade +10%Arcade · 7 maps
NukeTHUNDER dOWNUNDER ban
50%36%
THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 4 mapsedge THUNDER dOWNUNDER +14%Arcade · 7 maps
Dust2possible decider
63%33%
THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 4 mapsedge THUNDER dOWNUNDER +30%Arcade · 5 maps
MirageTHUNDER dOWNUNDER ban
50%42%
THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 0 mapsedge THUNDER dOWNUNDER +8%Arcade · 8 maps
CacheArcade pick
50%60%
THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 0 mapsedge Arcade +10%Arcade · 6 maps
AnubisArcade ban
67%50%
THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 5 mapsedge THUNDER dOWNUNDER +17%Arcade · 0 maps
AncientArcade ban
50%33%
THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 0 mapsedge THUNDER dOWNUNDER +17%Arcade · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanTHUNDER dOWNUNDER remove Mirage
2. BanArcade remove Anubis
3. PickTHUNDER dOWNUNDER take Inferno
4. PickArcade take Cache
5. BanArcade remove Ancient
6. BanTHUNDER dOWNUNDER remove Nuke
DeciderDust2 (63% / 33%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct13:7
THUNDER dOWNUNDER 61%Arcade 39%
The model gave 61% on THUNDER dOWNUNDER — the map was taken by THUNDER dOWNUNDER.
Infernoprediction missed13:7
THUNDER dOWNUNDER 41%Arcade 59%
The model gave 59% on Arcade — the map was taken by THUNDER dOWNUNDER.
Model check result
Model favoriteTHUNDER dOWNUNDER · 61%
Series resultTHUNDER dOWNUNDER 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2