ESL Challenger League Season 52 Oceania Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
THUNDER dOWNUNDER#128 in the world · win 2:0series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Mindfreak#213 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoMindfreak pick
50%53%
THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 4 mapsnearly even -3%Mindfreak · 11 maps
NukeMindfreak ban
43%45%
THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 3 mapsnearly even -2%Mindfreak · 7 maps
AnubisTHUNDER dOWNUNDER pick
50%38%
THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 4 mapsedge THUNDER dOWNUNDER +12%Mindfreak · 4 maps
MirageTHUNDER dOWNUNDER ban
50%60%
THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 0 mapsedge Mindfreak +10%Mindfreak · 6 maps
Dust2Mindfreak ban
50%40%
THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 4 mapsedge THUNDER dOWNUNDER +10%Mindfreak · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanTHUNDER dOWNUNDER remove Mirage
2. BanMindfreak remove Dust2
3. PickTHUNDER dOWNUNDER take Anubis
4. PickMindfreak take Inferno
5. BanMindfreak remove Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed13:8
THUNDER dOWNUNDER 44%Mindfreak 56%
The model gave 56% on Mindfreak — the map was taken by THUNDER dOWNUNDER.
Anubisprediction correct13:5
THUNDER dOWNUNDER 65%Mindfreak 35%
The model gave 65% on THUNDER dOWNUNDER — the map was taken by THUNDER dOWNUNDER.
Model check result
Model favoriteTHUNDER dOWNUNDER · 69%
Series resultTHUNDER dOWNUNDER 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2