European Pro League Series 7 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
TNC#147 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Misa#115 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragepossible decider
65%50%
TNC · 13 mapsedge TNC +15%Misa · 6 maps
NukeTNC pick
61%44%
TNC · 14 mapsedge TNC +17%Misa · 5 maps
Dust2Misa pick
36%64%
TNC · 10 mapsedge Misa +28%Misa · 7 maps
AncientMisa ban
53%50%
TNC · 13 mapsnearly even +3%Misa · 0 maps
AnubisMisa ban
67%38%
TNC · 8 mapsedge TNC +29%Misa · 4 maps
OverpassTNC ban
38%33%
TNC · 4 mapsedge TNC +5%Misa · 2 maps
DefaultTNC ban
38%50%
TNC · 4 mapsedge Misa +12%Misa · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanTNC remove Overpass
2. BanMisa remove Ancient
3. PickTNC take Nuke
4. PickMisa take Dust2
5. BanMisa remove Anubis
6. BanTNC remove Default
DeciderMirage (65% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct9:13
TNC 22%Misa 78%
The model gave 78% on Misa — the map was taken by Misa.
Nukeprediction missed2:13
TNC 69%Misa 31%
The model gave 69% on TNC — the map was taken by Misa.
Model check result
Model favoriteTNC · 67%
Series resultMisa 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2