European Pro League Series 7 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
TNC#147 in the world · loss 0:1series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Young Ninjas#103 in the world · win 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientpossible decider
56%60%
TNC · 12 mapsnearly even -4%Young Ninjas · 6 maps
Dust2Young Ninjas pick
38%38%
TNC · 9 mapsnearly even +0%Young Ninjas · 9 maps
NukeTNC pick
61%63%
TNC · 14 mapsnearly even -2%Young Ninjas · 4 maps
MirageYoung Ninjas ban
65%29%
TNC · 13 mapsedge TNC +36%Young Ninjas · 3 maps
AnubisYoung Ninjas ban
67%44%
TNC · 8 mapsedge TNC +23%Young Ninjas · 5 maps
OverpassTNC ban
38%67%
TNC · 4 mapsedge Young Ninjas +29%Young Ninjas · 2 maps
DefaultTNC ban
33%40%
TNC · 2 mapsedge Young Ninjas +7%Young Ninjas · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanTNC remove Overpass
2. BanYoung Ninjas remove Mirage
3. PickTNC take Nuke
4. PickYoung Ninjas take Dust2
5. BanYoung Ninjas remove Anubis
6. BanTNC remove Default
DeciderAncient (56% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct0:1
TNC 43%Young Ninjas 57%
The model gave 57% on Young Ninjas — the map was taken by Young Ninjas.
Model check result
Model favoriteTNC · 64%
Series resultYoung Ninjas 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 1