Exort Fiesta Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
TrafficPillsloss 0:2series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:2
KAMUI#187 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageKAMUI pick
33%67%
TrafficPills · 2 mapsedge KAMUI +34%KAMUI · 2 maps
CacheTrafficPills ban
33%60%
TrafficPills · 2 mapsedge KAMUI +27%KAMUI · 1 map
AncientTrafficPills ban
50%40%
TrafficPills · 0 mapsedge TrafficPills +10%KAMUI · 1 map
Dust2TrafficPills pick
50%40%
TrafficPills · 0 mapsedge TrafficPills +10%KAMUI · 1 map
InfernoKAMUI ban
60%50%
TrafficPills · 1 mapedge TrafficPills +10%KAMUI · 0 maps
NukeKAMUI ban
60%50%
TrafficPills · 1 mapedge TrafficPills +10%KAMUI · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanTrafficPills remove Ancient
2. BanKAMUI remove Nuke
3. PickTrafficPills take Dust2
4. PickKAMUI take Mirage
5. BanKAMUI remove Inferno
6. BanTrafficPills remove Cache
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct15:19
TrafficPills 18%KAMUI 82%
The model gave 82% on KAMUI — the map was taken by KAMUI.
Infernoprediction missed11:13
TrafficPills 63%KAMUI 37%
The model gave 63% on TrafficPills — the map was taken by KAMUI.
Model check result
Model favoriteKAMUI · 50%
Series resultKAMUI 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2