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Exort Fiesta Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
TrafficPillsloss 0:2
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Phantom Academy#173 in the world · win 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MiragePhantom Academy pick
40%71%
TrafficPills · 1 mapedge Phantom Academy +31%Phantom Academy · 10 maps
Cachepossible decider
40%36%
TrafficPills · 1 mapnearly even +4%Phantom Academy · 7 maps
AncientTrafficPills ban
50%45%
TrafficPills · 0 mapsedge TrafficPills +5%Phantom Academy · 7 maps
NukeTrafficPills pick
60%56%
TrafficPills · 1 mapnearly even +4%Phantom Academy · 5 maps
AnubisPhantom Academy ban
50%43%
TrafficPills · 0 mapsedge TrafficPills +7%Phantom Academy · 3 maps
DefaultTrafficPills ban
50%43%
TrafficPills · 0 mapsedge TrafficPills +7%Phantom Academy · 3 maps
Dust2Phantom Academy ban
50%57%
TrafficPills · 0 mapsedge Phantom Academy +7%Phantom Academy · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanTrafficPills remove Ancient
2. BanPhantom Academy remove Anubis
3. PickTrafficPills take Nuke
4. PickPhantom Academy take Mirage
5. BanPhantom Academy remove Dust2
6. BanTrafficPills remove Default
DeciderCache (40% / 36%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct10:13
TrafficPills 19%Phantom Academy 81%
The model gave 81% on Phantom Academy — the map was taken by Phantom Academy.
Cacheprediction missed10:13
TrafficPills 57%Phantom Academy 43%
The model gave 57% on TrafficPills — the map was taken by Phantom Academy.
Model check result
Model favoritePhantom Academy · 57%
Series resultPhantom Academy 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2