Exort Fiesta Series 1 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:2
benched gods#162 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancienttrain launcher ban
29%40%
train launcher · 3 mapsedge benched gods +11%benched gods · 6 maps
Anubistrain launcher pick
56%43%
train launcher · 5 mapsedge train launcher +13%benched gods · 3 maps
Miragebenched gods ban
38%40%
train launcher · 4 mapsnearly even -2%benched gods · 1 map
Cachebenched gods pick
50%63%
train launcher · 0 mapsedge benched gods +13%benched gods · 4 maps
Dust2train launcher ban
50%50%
train launcher · 0 mapsnearly even +0%benched gods · 4 maps
Infernobenched gods ban
67%50%
train launcher · 2 mapsedge train launcher +17%benched gods · 2 maps
Defaultpossible decider
50%67%
train launcher · 0 mapsedge benched gods +17%benched gods · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Bantrain launcher remove Dust2
2. Banbenched gods remove Mirage
3. Picktrain launcher take Anubis
4. Pickbenched gods take Cache
5. Banbenched gods remove Inferno
6. Bantrain launcher remove Ancient
DeciderDefault (50% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct4:13
train launcher 35%benched gods 65%
The model gave 65% on benched gods — the map was taken by benched gods.
Anubisprediction correct13:11
train launcher 65%benched gods 35%
The model gave 65% on train launcher — the map was taken by train launcher.
Infernoprediction missed7:13
train launcher 67%benched gods 33%
The model gave 67% on train launcher — the map was taken by benched gods.
Model check result
Model favoritetrain launcher · 50%
Series resultbenched gods 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3