NODWIN Clutch Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tricked#44 in the world · win 2:0series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeTricked ban
57%75%
Tricked · 3 mapsedge ex-RUBY +18%ex-RUBY · 4 maps
Mirageex-RUBY pick
50%63%
Tricked · 2 mapsedge ex-RUBY +13%ex-RUBY · 4 maps
OverpassTricked pick
43%43%
Tricked · 3 mapsnearly even +0%ex-RUBY · 3 maps
Dust2Tricked ban
50%67%
Tricked · 0 mapsedge ex-RUBY +17%ex-RUBY · 5 maps
Ancientex-RUBY ban
50%29%
Tricked · 0 mapsedge Tricked +21%ex-RUBY · 3 maps
Infernoex-RUBY ban
43%50%
Tricked · 3 mapsedge ex-RUBY +7%ex-RUBY · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanTricked remove Dust2
2. Banex-RUBY remove Inferno
3. PickTricked take Overpass
4. Pickex-RUBY take Mirage
5. Banex-RUBY remove Ancient
6. BanTricked remove Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:7
Tricked 35%ex-RUBY 65%
The model gave 65% on ex-RUBY — the map was taken by Tricked.
Overpassprediction correct13:8
Tricked 53%ex-RUBY 47%
The model gave 53% on Tricked — the map was taken by Tricked.
Model check result
Model favoriteTricked · 69%
Series resultTricked 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2