BC Game Masters Europe Season 2 Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tricked#44 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nemiga#22 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageNemiga ban
55%54%
Tricked · 7 mapsnearly even +1%Nemiga · 9 maps
OverpassNemiga pick
50%77%
Tricked · 4 mapsedge Nemiga +27%Nemiga · 9 maps
NukeTricked pick
70%56%
Tricked · 6 mapsedge Tricked +14%Nemiga · 5 maps
Ancientpossible decider
33%67%
Tricked · 2 mapsedge Nemiga +34%Nemiga · 8 maps
AnubisTricked ban
50%60%
Tricked · 0 mapsedge Nemiga +10%Nemiga · 6 maps
Dust2Tricked ban
50%50%
Tricked · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Nemiga · 6 maps
InfernoNemiga ban
50%50%
Tricked · 6 mapsnearly even +0%Nemiga · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanTricked remove Dust2
2. BanNemiga remove Inferno
3. PickTricked take Nuke
4. PickNemiga take Overpass
5. BanNemiga remove Mirage
6. BanTricked remove Anubis
DeciderAncient (33% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct9:13
Tricked 18%Nemiga 82%
The model gave 82% on Nemiga — the map was taken by Nemiga.
Nukeprediction missed7:13
Tricked 68%Nemiga 32%
The model gave 68% on Tricked — the map was taken by Nemiga.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga · 53%
Series resultNemiga 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2