ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Turma do Pagode#91 in the world · win 2:1series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:1
ALKA#129 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2ALKA pick
42%68%
Turma do Pagode · 15 mapsedge ALKA +26%ALKA · 27 maps
AncientTurma do Pagode pick
61%52%
Turma do Pagode · 14 mapsedge Turma do Pagode +9%ALKA · 21 map
Infernopossible decider
50%59%
Turma do Pagode · 4 mapsedge ALKA +9%ALKA · 13 maps
MirageTurma do Pagode ban
57%56%
Turma do Pagode · 3 mapsnearly even +1%ALKA · 12 maps
NukeALKA ban
43%43%
Turma do Pagode · 3 mapsnearly even +0%ALKA · 10 maps
CacheTurma do Pagode ban
60%45%
Turma do Pagode · 1 mapedge Turma do Pagode +15%ALKA · 7 maps
AnubisALKA ban
33%50%
Turma do Pagode · 5 mapsedge ALKA +17%ALKA · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanTurma do Pagode remove Mirage
2. BanALKA remove Anubis
3. PickTurma do Pagode take Ancient
4. PickALKA take Dust2
5. BanALKA remove Nuke
6. BanTurma do Pagode remove Cache
DeciderInferno (50% / 59%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:11
Turma do Pagode 62%ALKA 38%
The model gave 62% on Turma do Pagode — the map was taken by Turma do Pagode.
Dust2prediction correct4:13
Turma do Pagode 23%ALKA 77%
The model gave 77% on ALKA — the map was taken by ALKA.
Infernoprediction missed13:6
Turma do Pagode 41%ALKA 59%
The model gave 59% on ALKA — the map was taken by Turma do Pagode.
Model check result
Model favoriteTurma do Pagode · 71%
Series resultTurma do Pagode 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3