ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Turma do Pagode#91 in the world · win 2:0series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Galorys#68 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientTurma do Pagode pick
65%85%
Turma do Pagode · 16 mapsedge Galorys +20%Galorys · 22 maps
Dust2possible decider
40%52%
Turma do Pagode · 16 mapsedge Galorys +12%Galorys · 17 maps
AnubisTurma do Pagode ban
40%46%
Turma do Pagode · 6 mapsedge Galorys +6%Galorys · 9 maps
InfernoGalorys ban
56%30%
Turma do Pagode · 5 mapsedge Turma do Pagode +26%Galorys · 6 maps
NukeGalorys pick
43%67%
Turma do Pagode · 3 mapsedge Galorys +24%Galorys · 8 maps
CacheGalorys ban
60%50%
Turma do Pagode · 1 mapedge Turma do Pagode +10%Galorys · 8 maps
MirageTurma do Pagode ban
57%50%
Turma do Pagode · 3 mapsedge Turma do Pagode +7%Galorys · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanTurma do Pagode remove Mirage
2. BanGalorys remove Inferno
3. PickTurma do Pagode take Ancient
4. PickGalorys take Nuke
5. BanGalorys remove Cache
6. BanTurma do Pagode remove Anubis
DeciderDust2 (40% / 52%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed13:10
Turma do Pagode 47%Galorys 53%
The model gave 53% on Galorys — the map was taken by Turma do Pagode.
Ancientprediction missed13:7
Turma do Pagode 23%Galorys 77%
The model gave 77% on Galorys — the map was taken by Turma do Pagode.
Model check result
Model favoriteGalorys · 51%
Series resultTurma do Pagode 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 2