FERJEE In House Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Turma do Pagode#91 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Keyd Stars#155 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientTurma do Pagode pick
65%50%
Turma do Pagode · 13 mapsedge Turma do Pagode +15%Keyd Stars · 20 maps
Dust2possible decider
47%38%
Turma do Pagode · 13 mapsedge Turma do Pagode +9%Keyd Stars · 9 maps
MirageTurma do Pagode ban
57%52%
Turma do Pagode · 3 mapsedge Turma do Pagode +5%Keyd Stars · 17 maps
InfernoKeyd Stars ban
50%36%
Turma do Pagode · 4 mapsedge Turma do Pagode +14%Keyd Stars · 7 maps
NukeTurma do Pagode ban
43%33%
Turma do Pagode · 3 mapsedge Turma do Pagode +10%Keyd Stars · 8 maps
AnubisKeyd Stars pick
29%67%
Turma do Pagode · 3 mapsedge Keyd Stars +38%Keyd Stars · 5 maps
CacheKeyd Stars ban
60%40%
Turma do Pagode · 1 mapedge Turma do Pagode +20%Keyd Stars · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanTurma do Pagode remove Mirage
2. BanKeyd Stars remove Cache
3. PickTurma do Pagode take Ancient
4. PickKeyd Stars take Anubis
5. BanKeyd Stars remove Inferno
6. BanTurma do Pagode remove Nuke
DeciderDust2 (47% / 38%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed11:13
Turma do Pagode 67%Keyd Stars 33%
The model gave 67% on Turma do Pagode — the map was taken by Keyd Stars.
Anubisprediction missed13:7
Turma do Pagode 15%Keyd Stars 85%
The model gave 85% on Keyd Stars — the map was taken by Turma do Pagode.
Dust2prediction missed8:13
Turma do Pagode 59%Keyd Stars 41%
The model gave 59% on Turma do Pagode — the map was taken by Keyd Stars.
Model check result
Model favoriteTurma do Pagode · 62%
Series resultKeyd Stars 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 3