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Circuit X Curitiba Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Turma do Pagode#92 in the world · loss 1:2
series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 1:2
ShindeN#57 in the world · win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2ShindeN pick
45%63%
Turma do Pagode · 18 mapsedge ShindeN +18%ShindeN · 12 maps
AncientTurma do Pagode pick
69%50%
Turma do Pagode · 25 mapsedge Turma do Pagode +19%ShindeN · 4 maps
Infernopossible decider
56%50%
Turma do Pagode · 5 mapsedge Turma do Pagode +6%ShindeN · 12 maps
MirageTurma do Pagode ban
56%33%
Turma do Pagode · 5 mapsedge Turma do Pagode +23%ShindeN · 11 maps
NukeTurma do Pagode ban
44%53%
Turma do Pagode · 5 mapsedge ShindeN +9%ShindeN · 11 maps
AnubisShindeN ban
40%50%
Turma do Pagode · 11 mapsedge ShindeN +10%ShindeN · 0 maps
CacheShindeN ban
57%40%
Turma do Pagode · 3 mapsedge Turma do Pagode +17%ShindeN · 6 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanTurma do Pagode remove Mirage
2. BanShindeN remove Anubis
3. PickTurma do Pagode take Ancient
4. PickShindeN take Dust2
5. BanShindeN remove Cache
6. BanTurma do Pagode remove Nuke
DeciderInferno (56% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed4:13
Turma do Pagode 66%ShindeN 34%
The model gave 66% on Turma do Pagode — the map was taken by ShindeN.
Dust2prediction missed13:9
Turma do Pagode 36%ShindeN 64%
The model gave 64% on ShindeN — the map was taken by Turma do Pagode.
Nukeprediction correct10:13
Turma do Pagode 41%ShindeN 59%
The model gave 59% on ShindeN — the map was taken by ShindeN.
Model check result
Model favoriteShindeN · 77%
Series resultShindeN 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3