ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Turma do Pagode#91 in the world · win 2:0series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Yawara#156 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Turma do Pagode ban
40%53%
Turma do Pagode · 16 mapsedge Yawara +13%Yawara · 13 maps
AncientTurma do Pagode pick
63%59%
Turma do Pagode · 15 mapsnearly even +4%Yawara · 13 maps
MirageTurma do Pagode ban
57%43%
Turma do Pagode · 3 mapsedge Turma do Pagode +14%Yawara · 17 maps
AnubisYawara pick
33%53%
Turma do Pagode · 5 mapsedge Yawara +20%Yawara · 11 maps
Infernopossible decider
56%57%
Turma do Pagode · 5 mapsnearly even -1%Yawara · 3 maps
CacheYawara ban
60%20%
Turma do Pagode · 1 mapedge Turma do Pagode +40%Yawara · 6 maps
NukeYawara ban
43%50%
Turma do Pagode · 3 mapsedge Yawara +7%Yawara · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanTurma do Pagode remove Mirage
2. BanYawara remove Cache
3. PickTurma do Pagode take Ancient
4. PickYawara take Anubis
5. BanYawara remove Nuke
6. BanTurma do Pagode remove Dust2
DeciderInferno (56% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed13:5
Turma do Pagode 28%Yawara 72%
The model gave 72% on Yawara — the map was taken by Turma do Pagode.
Ancientprediction correct13:10
Turma do Pagode 58%Yawara 42%
The model gave 58% on Turma do Pagode — the map was taken by Turma do Pagode.
Model check result
Model favoriteTurma do Pagode · 60%
Series resultTurma do Pagode 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2