ESL Challenger League Season 51 Asia-Pacific Finals · BO5
result vs prediction
TYLOO#33 in the world · win 3:0series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 3:0
SemperFi#67 in the world · loss 0:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientTYLOO ban
31%40%
TYLOO · 9 mapsedge SemperFi +9%SemperFi · 1 map
InfernoTYLOO pick
64%43%
TYLOO · 7 mapsedge TYLOO +21%SemperFi · 3 maps
MirageTYLOO pick
73%50%
TYLOO · 7 mapsedge TYLOO +23%SemperFi · 2 maps
Nukepossible decider
63%50%
TYLOO · 4 mapsedge TYLOO +13%SemperFi · 2 maps
OverpassSemperFi pick
60%50%
TYLOO · 6 mapsedge TYLOO +10%SemperFi · 0 maps
AnubisSemperFi ban
60%50%
TYLOO · 1 mapedge TYLOO +10%SemperFi · 0 maps
DefaultSemperFi pick
60%50%
TYLOO · 1 mapedge TYLOO +10%SemperFi · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanTYLOO remove Ancient
2. BanSemperFi remove Anubis
3. PickTYLOO take Inferno
4. PickSemperFi take Default
5. PickTYLOO take Mirage
6. PickSemperFi take Overpass
DeciderNuke (63% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct13:9
TYLOO 72%SemperFi 28%
The model gave 72% on TYLOO — the map was taken by TYLOO.
Mirageprediction correct13:7
TYLOO 70%SemperFi 30%
The model gave 70% on TYLOO — the map was taken by TYLOO.
Nukeprediction correct13:8
TYLOO 65%SemperFi 35%
The model gave 65% on TYLOO — the map was taken by TYLOO.
Model check result
Model favoriteTYLOO · 78%
Series resultTYLOO 3:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3