FOX Legacy Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
UNiTY#102 in the world · win 2:0series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:0
aimclub#98 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientaimclub ban
67%30%
UNiTY · 17 mapsedge UNiTY +37%aimclub · 6 maps
Mirageaimclub pick
50%62%
UNiTY · 14 mapsedge aimclub +12%aimclub · 9 maps
InfernoUNiTY pick
58%70%
UNiTY · 15 mapsedge aimclub +12%aimclub · 6 maps
Dust2UNiTY ban
50%40%
UNiTY · 14 mapsedge UNiTY +10%aimclub · 6 maps
Anubispossible decider
62%60%
UNiTY · 9 mapsnearly even +2%aimclub · 6 maps
CacheUNiTY ban
46%57%
UNiTY · 9 mapsedge aimclub +11%aimclub · 3 maps
Defaultaimclub ban
57%50%
UNiTY · 3 mapsedge UNiTY +7%aimclub · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanUNiTY remove Cache
2. Banaimclub remove Ancient
3. PickUNiTY take Inferno
4. Pickaimclub take Mirage
5. Banaimclub remove Default
6. BanUNiTY remove Dust2
DeciderAnubis (62% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:5
UNiTY 57%aimclub 43%
The model gave 57% on UNiTY — the map was taken by UNiTY.
Cacheprediction missed13:4
UNiTY 42%aimclub 58%
The model gave 58% on aimclub — the map was taken by UNiTY.
Model check result
Model favoriteaimclub · 51%
Series resultUNiTY 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2