NODWIN Clutch Series 9 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
UNiTY#102 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 0:2
ASTRAL#97 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientUNiTY pick
43%61%
UNiTY · 10 mapsedge ASTRAL +18%ASTRAL · 19 maps
Dust2ASTRAL ban
46%47%
UNiTY · 9 mapsnearly even -1%ASTRAL · 11 maps
MirageUNiTY ban
46%54%
UNiTY · 9 mapsedge ASTRAL +8%ASTRAL · 9 maps
AnubisASTRAL pick
40%75%
UNiTY · 6 mapsedge ASTRAL +35%ASTRAL · 4 maps
InfernoASTRAL ban
67%33%
UNiTY · 2 mapsedge UNiTY +34%ASTRAL · 8 maps
NukeUNiTY ban
50%36%
UNiTY · 0 mapsedge UNiTY +14%ASTRAL · 7 maps
Defaultpossible decider
60%60%
UNiTY · 1 mapnearly even +0%ASTRAL · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanUNiTY remove Nuke
2. BanASTRAL remove Inferno
3. PickUNiTY take Ancient
4. PickASTRAL take Anubis
5. BanASTRAL remove Dust2
6. BanUNiTY remove Mirage
DeciderDefault (60% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct9:13
UNiTY 46%ASTRAL 54%
The model gave 54% on ASTRAL — the map was taken by ASTRAL.
Infernoprediction missed11:13
UNiTY 82%ASTRAL 18%
The model gave 82% on UNiTY — the map was taken by ASTRAL.
Model check result
Model favoriteASTRAL · 56%
Series resultASTRAL 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2